Ukraine amidst global controversies

How is it possible for Ukraine, until recently relatively silent and unknown on the world stage, to suddenly become so embroiled in multiple incidents garnering global scrutiny and attention? The most recent incident is the downing of Ukrainian Airlines Boeing 737 bound for Kyiv in Iran shortly after Iran sent missiles into Iraq targetting US military bases in response to the US assassination of an Iranian general. It appears the plane was shot down by Iranian missiles. The Iranian missiles were probably supplied by Russia, who, in 2014, shot down a Malaysia Airlines jet over eastern Ukraine.

While Ukraine is at the centre of attention of the US impeachment trial of Donald Trump, Russia is gaining power in the Middle East whereas the US appears to be losing ground. It's all about to go to hell in a handbasket. And somehow, Ukraine ends up in the middle again. Poor President Zelensky. I'm sure if he'd have written the script this way for his TV show Servant of the People, it wouldn't have been believable.

Zelensky's rock and hard places

I feel so bad for Volodymyr Zelensky. Six months into his tenure as President of Ukraine, he is a changed man. At the centre of the US House impeachment hearings, he finds himself embroiled in controversies not of his doing, stuck in the middle between Trump and Putin. He has no chance to succeed. Ukraine has no chance to win the battles.

Yet, he has secured the release of a batch of prisoners who are suing Russia over torture. And he's made the cover of Time magazine in a year when Trump was only shown in caricature. His story was so hopeful. The comedian turned President who made a TV show come to real life. I hope he can endure.

Zelenskiy takes the first round

With a majority of the votes counted, Zelenskiy has taken more than 30% of the vote on the first round. Poroshenko is following in second place with about 18%. Tymoshenko is out with 13%.

So it's as I expected, since no one took more than 50% of the vote, Zelenskiy and Poroshenko will face off in a runoff on April 21. Slava Ukraini!

The New York Times has an analysis here.

People have been saying "Only in Ukraine." But that's not true. Remember, the US had Ronald Reagan, a B-class movie actor. And California had the Governator. Now the US has a reality TV show star as President. Name recognition counts. And Zelenskiy has been role playing for some time now. That might make him the most qualified on the issues that count to the people. Let's watch what happens.

Elections in Ukraine

What do a chocolate magnate, an energy tycoon later jailed on corruption charges, and a TV comedian have in common? They are all running in Ukraine's presidential election today.

Zelensky casting his ballot

That may sound like a joke, but it's serious business for a country at war with Russia. They are the three lead candidates for the job: the incumbent, a former Prime Minister, and a comedian playing the President in a television series. If there is no outright majority winner, the top two candidates will duke it out in a second election on April 21. The incumbent, Petro Poroshenko's approval rating has gained some ground recently but the comedian, Volodymyr Zelensky may score 26.6% of the vote according to one poll. 

Zelensky is the star of 'Слуга Народу,' or Servant of the People, a Ukrainian television series carried on Netflix. He has high recognition and his name is a household word. In the made-for-TV series, Zelensky plays a schoolteacher who unexpectedly becomes President of Ukraine after becoming famous for an anti-corruption rant that goes viral on social media. Servant of the People is, in essence, a campaign advertisement for Zelensky. A new episode aired just days before the election. In reality, he's a political newcomer with no real platform or experience. They say that comedians are highly intelligent people. Let's see how long he can stand up to the pressures of facing down Putin. 

The third candidate is former Prime Minister Yulia Tymoshenko. The most recent Rating Group Ukraine poll* showed Tymoshenko running neck and neck with Poroshenko, each with support from about 17% of likely voters. Tymoshenko was the head of an energy company in the 1990s, became Prime Minister twice, and was later jailed over a natural gas agreement that she signed with Russia. She is widely believed to be corrupt among the Ukrainians and the victim of political retribution by others. 

Personally, I have liked Poroshenko. He's been in a tough place. He lost Crimea and Donbas on his watch. But he got Ukraine through the separation of the Ukrainian Orthodox Church from the Russian Orthodox Church, possibly halted the complete invasion of Ukraine by Russia, and managed to get the EU and NATO to consider Ukraine's position in Europe. Given that he is fighting off Putin, it's not difficult to understand why it would be hard to get a really high approval rating. 

I am suspect of Tymoshenko and I don't know Zelensky. Looks like I'll have to watch Netflix tonight.

*МОНІТОРИНГ ЕЛЕКТОРАЛЬНИХ НАСТРОЇВ УКРАЇНЦІВ (22-27 БЕРЕЗНЯ 2019 РОКУ)

Дата публікації: 28.03.2019

http://ratinggroup.ua/research/ukraine/monitoring_elektoralnyh_nastroeniy_ukraincev_22-27_marta_2019_goda.html