War is not going Putin's way

The David and Goliath war. The Bible says David won. 

The war has been going for several days and Ukraine still has not given up. The main cities remain under Ukrainian control, civilians are taking up arms, the diaspora is coming home or supporting those fleeing. Some 500,000 have already crossed borders into Poland, Moldova, Bulgaria and the Chech Republic. The Polish have been enormously supportive and the world has rallied around Ukraine's cause chanting 'No War' even in Russia. Thousands hit the streets in cities around the world this weekend. 

Zelenskyy, the Ukrainian soldiers, and the Ukrainian people are being seen as heroes, dedicated to preserving their freedom and protecting their homeland. Ireland has opened its borders to Ukrainians wishing to enter who don't have a visa.  

I was hoping to offer accommodation in a friend's renovated CG station and help with transport and translation, but the place isn't fit for occupation just yet. I have donated money to Ukraine's fund for medical supplies, propagated fact-checked information, created a list of Russian-owned companies to avoid, and offered moral support where possible. I also prayed. And I cried - tears of sadness and of pride. 

Meanwhile, the sanctions have hit Russia hard. Russian currency lost 30% of its value today and the central bank doubled interest rates to prop it up. Everyone is dumping Russian assets. BP is dumping its share of Rosneft, Norway is dumping about $3 billion from its sovereign fund. Europeans are giving up their board seats and Russian-owned companies are exposed. Lukoil and Holland & Barrett are owned by Russian oligarchs and should be boycotted. 

Students and grannies are making Molotov cocktails to use against the Russian troops. It's their way of saying we don't want you here. 

Airspace over Europe has banned any Russian planes, including oligarch's private jets. Pretty soon Russians won't be able to go anywhere in the Western world. I'd say they won't be happy with Putin after this. 

What it means to be Ukrainian today

Remember this image and this day: 24-02-2022

Even though I knew it would happen, I can honestly say that I truly hoped it wouldn't. Today, Russian forces invaded Ukraine in a full out assault from the North to Kharkiv, from Crimea to Odesa, and from Byelorus to Kyiv. The Associated Press reports that 40 people have been killed in the initial onslaught.  War is underway. 

My heart breaks for the people who finally had a chance to celebrate Ukrainian sovereignty. We woke up to a different Europe and a different world today. Everyone had thought that the war to end all wars did just that. But that didn't take Putin's madness into account. He is Stalin's disciple and wiping out the Ukrainian people would be his major goal. Stalin killed 40 million Ukrainians in the Holodomor. How many will Putin target?  He is not to be outdone. Putin is a madman. He is a murderer. He is a war criminal. 

Kyiv under attack

Remember this day: 24 February 2022. Solidarity with Ukraine. When will the world stand up to him?

https://twitter.com/i/status/1496799736744996866 

https://twitter.com/i/status/1496823374835818502

https://twitter.com/i/status/1496805284068700161

https://twitter.com/i/status/1496795404268146694

https://twitter.com/i/status/1496802459049549824

https://twitter.com/i/status/1496817380424617986

#Ukraine 🇺🇦: somewhere near #Kyiv a Ukrainian MiG-29 (low-flying) is taking on a Russian Su-35.

https://twitter.com/i/status/1496821171119079430

BBC Updates page: https://www.bbc.com/news/live/world-europe-60454795 

False flag ops start in Donetsk

Russians claim a Ukrainian shell destroyed a private house and barn (Unoccupied) and call it attempted murder. The Russian backed separatists evacuate Russian-speaking citizens from the eastern region to Russia, claiming that Ukraine is about to attack. A Ukrainian-flagged tank is shown crossing a bridge, presumably into occupied territory. 

It has begun. 

Update: 22-02-22

Russia moved 'peacekeeping forces' into Donetsk and Luhansk and declared them independent of Ukraine. 

Putin's speech about Ukraine is rewriting history and showed just how much he hates Ukrainians. 

Munich Security Conference

VP Kamala Harris delivers a speech to the Conference. "Today I will deliver remarks at the Munich Security Conference on how the United States, our allies, and our partners are demonstrating strength and unity in the face of Russian aggression."

She was clear, concise and direct. She was accompanied by a bipartisan team from Congress to uphold the US commitment to Ukraine. She did so out of duty and responsibility representing the United States and NATO.

"We are 1) exposing the truth and 2) speaking with one voice."

"Their actions simply do not match their words."

"Everyone knows it takes much more to build something up than to tear it down."  

- Madam Vice President

This taking place as news media report escalating fighting in the East, Russian troop movements along the borders and Putin supervising a nuclear exercise.

A cold war

The US is sending troops to Europe and the EU starts defusing the disinformation campaign spawned by Russia. Meanwhile, the NY Times is keeping tabs on the deepening rift between the US and Russia while Putin sidles up to Xi in Beijing. 

Can't we just revel in the Olympics and start living with Covid instead of worrying about WWIII. Perhaps the chicken found infiltrating the Pentagon will be tried for spying. That will take our minds off things. 

Be afraid

A map shows the Russia build-up near the Ukraine border.

Today, what it means to be Ukrainian is to be afraid. It has been clear for some time that Putin is going to invade Ukraine. He took Crimea to have a Black Sea Port. He marched into Donbas to get a foothold and an excuse to rescue the Russain-speakers. He caused trouble in Byelorus to wag the dog. He sent troops to Kazakhstan on a peacekeeping mission. Except Russia is notorious for sending in troops under the guise of peacekeeping that continue on to establish a permanent presence in the host countries. He has warned that Ukraine may not join NATO and the US and EU should not interfere. 

Today, he mounted a cyberattack on Ukraine's government computer systems. More troops are massing on the northern and southern borders now. 

And the US has accused Russia of sending saboteurs into Ukraine to stage “a false-flag operation” that would create a pretext for Moscow to invade. That's his style. A Russian analyst says Ukraine is Putin's last stand in keeping NATO away from its borders. 

WW III?

Is the world prepared for war over Ukraine?  I believe not and Paul Mason lays out the arguments well. No one really likes or cares about Ukraine. People see it as the weaker version of Russia and just as corrupt. And of course, it is because it was populated by Russian oligarchs who pillaged the natural resources of Ukraine, and starved and poisoned its people and their will. 

But Ukrainians will not give up. What every one of Ukrainian descent knows is that the diaspora were all taught to fight for Ukraine when the time comes. And the time is coming.

What anyone who has played the board game Risk also knows is that Ukraine's borders are indefensible. There's just too much border to watch it all. So whether any war can secure the country is questionable. Wait and see. 

To coup or not to coup

President Zelenskiy revealed yesterday that Ukraine had uncovered a Russia-backed plan to stage a coup in Ukraine. It was to take place December 1-2 and involve Ukraine's richest man, Rinat Akhmetov. He said there were tape recordings of a conversation between Russians and Akhmetov who were trying to recruit him for the coup.

Rinat Akhmetov is a Sunni Muslim born in 1966 in Donetsk Ukraine. His father was a coal miner and his mother was a cleaner.  In his 20s, he became a protege of Akhat Bragin, another Tatar, who was President of Football Club FC Shakhtar Donetsk. At age 29, Akhmetov inherited Bragin's business empire after he was assassinated. He began buying natural resource assets and soon became the richest man in Ukraine, owning about half of Ukraine's steel, coal and energy production. He has been accused but never charged with being involved in organised crime.

Akhmetov is the founder and president of System Capital Management (SCM) now headquartered in Kyiv. He bankrolled American political consultant Paul Manafort to assist Victor Yanukovych's bid for election as President. Akhmetov was a member of the Ukrainian Verkhovna Rada (parliament). He then sided with Kyiv and opposed the pro-Russian separatists, saying a civil war would lead to the loss of jobs. It actually cost him a significant portion of his assets. When the war broke out, he moved the football club to Lviv and the businesses to Kyiv and has made multiple statements about the importance of maintaining Ukraine's sovereign integrity and finding peaceful solutions to the conflict. Now at age 55, he is the richest oligarch in Ukraine, net worth estimated at $7.5 billion. 

Traditionally pro-Ukraine, Sunni Muslims make up 13% of the Crimean population. I can actually see that Putin could believe that Rinat Akhmetov could sway the Crimean Muslims to back Russia in a conflict. I do not believe he would risk his fortune to work for Putin. 

Of course, both Akhmetov and Russia responded that there was no such plan. Russia claims the US is behind what was just malicious propaganda. Putin also made clear that his red line against Ukraine's joining NATO was not being taken seriously enough. 

To me, it sounds like exactly something Putin would stage. Orchestrate a coup in Ukraine, then send in troops to 'stabilise' the region and put in a puppet to 'lead' the nation. It's all a bit transparent. He needs that land corridor to Crimea and he's going to get it no matter how. 

Of course, Zelenskiy knows how to act the part of a wronged President fighting a corrupt superpower. He did it for years on TV. There are 92,000 troops on Ukraine's doorstep. Revealing the coup attempt would cause Putin to have to pivot. Zelenskiy is going to have to do more than act the part. But it's an interesting delaying strategy. 

Russia preparing to invade Ukraine

Satellite photo shows ground forces massing in Yelnya, Russia
November 1, 2021. Pic: Maxar /Reuters

Tanks near border

Russia is massing troops (100,000) near Ukraine's border and wagging the dog with migrants in Belarus. Macron tells Putin France is ready to defend Ukraine's 'territorial integrity', the US has delivered 80 tons of munitions to Ukraine, Sweden is ready to send a military training mission to Ukraine. Johnson wants the EU to choose between Ukraine and the gas pipeline (WTF????).

"U.S. officials warn Europe: Russia may be weighing an invasion of Ukraine" (Bloomberg) "Blinken Warns Russia Against Making a ‘Serious Mistake’ in Ukraine" NYT

"France told Russia NATO would be prepared to defend the sovereignty of Ukraine, while Western leaders sought to tackle a migrants crisis on the eastern borders of the European Union."

"Alors que les tensions entre la Russie et l'Europe semblent plus proches que jamais du point de rupture, les États-Unis ont livré 80 tonnes de munitions à l'Ukraine."

"JUST NU: Försvarsminister Peter Hultqvist (S) beredd att skicka svensk militär till Ukraina samtidigt som Ryssland rustar vid gränsen. Säger ja till förslag att träna ukrainska trupper." https://sverigesradio.se/artikel/forsva

"Boris Johnson warns EU to choose between Ukraine and Nord Stream 2" FT

"Nord Stream 2: Germany halts approval of Russian gas link" BBC

Is this the moment the next WW is triggered? Just what we need: a pandemic, a climate crisis and a world war.  Oh yes, add pestilence to the list because scorpions stung more than 500 people in Egypt after massive rainstorms flooded their homes. 

The speculation is that Russia needs to establish a land bridge to Crimea and that they plan to take that corridor forcibly. Noone has mentioned if they have moved any ships into position yet. 

International Women's Day

Marc Bennetts a journalist in Moscow reported on how Russia marked International Women’s Day. International Women’s Day, a public holiday in Russia, has long lost any connection to feminist issues. The 8th of March has become all about men giving women flowers and complementing them on their looks.

Vladimir Putin offered his own tribute to Russian women, “You find time for everything – at work and at home, and yet remain beautiful, bright, charming and the centre of gravity for the whole family, uniting it with your love, as well as your ability to inspire and support, comfort and console.”
Putin’s comments came after he told female police officers, “What does a young woman need to maintain her figure? Three things: a workout machine, a masseuse, and a suitor.” He honoured female mounted police officers by riding alongside them.

This year, a bomb disposal robot handed bunches of yellow tulips to young girls in an online video. In Yekaterinburg, servicemen posted perhaps the day’s oddest tribute to Russia’s women, posing with assault rifles alongside ballerinas in an empty metro station. The project was entitled “The strength of a man is in the tenderness and love of a woman.” In Crimea, little green men in fatigues mimicked those seen on the peninsula before it was annexed. They handed out flowers on the streets. In St. Petersburg, men crashed into a feminist coffee shop forcing flowers on women during a women's only event where reportedly one woman sprayed them with pepper spray. 

The sad thing is, they don't see anything wrong with their behaviour. Domestic violence is a serious problem. About 8,000 Russian women are estimated to die annually from injuries caused by their partners. The situation was exacerbated in 2017 when Putin signed off on a law that partially decriminalised domestic violence. There were some attempts to promote women's rights on the day under the banner “It’s Not Her Fault” to raise funds for a charity that assists survivors of domestic abuse..

I'm afraid it's not much better in Ukraine. Ukraine, of course, celebrated similarly under communism. But last year, in 2018, the holiday was removed from the calendar. Women, who had been happy to be treated nicely on one day of the year became angry. Men who were used to doing something special on one day of the year got confused. And now the future of International Women's Day in Ukraine is uncertain. Why are women respected on just one day of the year? How about International Women's Year every year?

Russia's control of the seas

In the recent aggressive actions by Russia in the Sea of Azov, Russia has challenged international maritime law without reproach. By capturing Ukrainian ships and crews and regulating access to the Sea under their bridge, they have essentially closed off shipping to Ukrainian ports. They have crippled Ukraine's ability to trade and no one has stood up against them. The Ukrainians are still counting on NATO’s more active participation in condemning Russian aggression especially in the Sea of Azov crisis. We know that NATO means 'No Action, Talking Only'. This applies especially to the US and Trump. But hope remains.

Putin's strategic moves with Crimea and challenges to Ukraine by land and by sea have gone unpunished. No one cares about Ukraine. In the past, world wars have been started over much less. Yes, I learned in the board game RISK that Ukraine's borders are not defensible. Ukraine's defenses - one war ship - are certainly not up to the standard required to be a superpower whose borders others respect. No, instead, Putin pushes the boundaries wherever and whenever he can, gaining ground by inches if he has to, inducing fear among any who cross his lines. It is so frustrating to watch.

The New York Times summarizes the risks today:

"Such fears have highlighted how easy it is for Russia to squeeze Mariupol and Ukraine as a whole by dialing up and down pressure. It eases off when it wants to head off calls abroad for sanctions and assert plausible deniability, while leaving such a cloud of uncertainty that nobody can be sure what the risks are."

Meanwhile, Moscow is making moves to 'integrate' Belarus into Russia and the Unification Assembly of the Ukrainian Orthodox Church is taking part in Kyiv today to unite the two factions of the Ukrainian Church and remove Russia's controls over it. This is a volatile period for Europe. Putin won't stop until he has regained control of what was once the Soviet Union. Anything can explode.

Ukraine/Russia Conflict

The conflict between Ukraine and Russia explained very well. Above, the bridge Russia built from Crimea to the mainland.

Daniel McLaughlin, Central and Eastern Europe Correspondent for the Irish Times discusses the major tensions between Russia and Ukraine.

https://www.rte.ie/radio/utils/radioplayer/rteradioweb.html#!rii=b9_21472326_70__

Ukraine is not Russia

In response to Putin claiming that Ukraine is just southern Russia and in follow-up to the post about the spelling of Kyiv, Ukraine's capital, I offer this comparison between Kyiv and Moscow. Kyiv was founded back in 482 AD by three Norse explorers and their sister. Ukraine was a great Empire by the  9th century and its Christian roots go back to that period. In 867 Saints Cyril and Methodius appealed in person to the Bishop of Rome to bring the Christian faith into Kyivan Rus. By 906, they had founded a diocese in Peremyshl, today a diocese of the Ukrainian Greek Catholic Church in what is now Przemyśl, Poland from where my father's family hails. Their efforts, and those of their apostles, led to the translation of Christian Scriptures and service (liturgy) from Greek to Slavonic, and the eventual development of the modern Cyrillic alphabet. Christianity became dominant in the territory with the mass Baptism of Kiev in the Dniepro River in 988 ordered by Vladimir the Great.

This was several hundred years before Russia even existed! Moscow was founded around 1147. Ukraine is not Russia and never has been.

Russia was born out of Ukraine

"It happened so that although it was Russia that was born out of Ukraine, and not the other way around, due to systematic distortion of historical facts to serve ideological needs (just consider the concept of ‘great Russia’) the entire world (alas, including Ukrainians themselves) grew to believe in this distorted picture of history and culture, believe in the ‘big brother.’ But Volodymyr the Great, Baptist of Rus’, Volodymyr Monomakh, and many other ‘founders of the Russian nation and culture’ were of Ukrainian, not Russian origin!"

Timothy Snyder on the destabilization of Europe and fall of democracy

On March 3, Timothy Snyder, historian and author of books on Stalinist Russia and tyranny, has delivered a disturbing but very insightful lecture about Russia's role in destabilization of Europe. His conclusions are important for anyone analyzing what is happening across Europe today and how we got here.

In his remarks delivered during a  conference entitled “Ukraine, Russia and the EU: Europe, a Year After Crimea Annexation” held in Berlin on March 2, 2015, Snyder examines the tactics used in Russia’s aggressive actions in Ukraine -- annexing Crimea and starting a war along Russia’s border -- against the backdrop of European history.  He specifically examines the history and memory of World War II. He also looks at how Russia is trying to alter the memory of the aspects of the history that are most disturbing.

Eurovision coming to Ukraine in May 2017

Jamala at Eurovision 2016

As the deadline for entry looming on March 13, the world is wondering if Russia will show this year. With Eurovision set to be staged in Kyiv, Ukraine's capital, in May, the political statement from last year's defeat might be an insurmountable hurdle for moscow, where lawmakers and a leading pop star are calling for Russia to boycott the competition. The Kremlin has said it believes there could be security problems for Russians in Ukraine. Following Ukraine's victory at the 2016 contest in Stockholm with the song "1944", written and performed by Jamala, which was thought to be a thinly veiled protest against Russia's annexation of Crimea, a coup of sorts showing European support of Ukraine in the conflict has caused Russia some consternation.

While Trump stomps on US, Putin attacks Ukraine

The war in Donbas has been stepped up. The Russians began shelling on Sunday and haven't stopped. This is a test. A test to see how far they can push Trump. If he does nothing, as he is apt to do, then they will know they have the freedom to push hard into Ukraine.

Theresa May has stood fast with Nato in supporting the cease fire and sanctions. Trump has not. Let's see what happens next in this deadly game of chess.

A Canadian expose on Putin

http://www.cbc.ca/player/Kids/Parents/ID/2646889875/

A 45 minute program on Putin.



THE FIFTH ESTATE | Season 40, Episode 08 | Jan 9, 2015 | 45:11

Putin's Long Shadow

A joint investigation by the fifth estate and PBS Frontline probes Russian leader Vladimir Putin: allegations of criminal activity and corruption, with a secret personal fortune said to be in the billions. Gillian Findlay reports on the dark side of one of the most powerful men in the world.

Putin's lies and promises

Yesterday, Putin promised that the Ukrainian troops surrounded by Russian troops in Ukraine could retreat through a safe passage corridor. They were then slaughtered as they carried white flags. Putin lied.  We all know he does. That was a war crime.  Putin must be brought to justice.

Russian troops aren't lost, they are on holidays in Ukraine!

The Russian troops taken prisoner by the Ukrainian military were supposedly on maneuvers when they accidentally crossed the border into Ukraine.  Putin said it was Ukraine's fault that there was an unguarded border crossing allowing them to get lost...in rebel held territory. Today Canada tweeted a a lovely snide posting of a map to help guide the Russian troops in case they get lost, which immediately went viral.  Thanks @Canada.