To coup or not to coup

President Zelenskiy revealed yesterday that Ukraine had uncovered a Russia-backed plan to stage a coup in Ukraine. It was to take place December 1-2 and involve Ukraine's richest man, Rinat Akhmetov. He said there were tape recordings of a conversation between Russians and Akhmetov who were trying to recruit him for the coup.

Rinat Akhmetov is a Sunni Muslim born in 1966 in Donetsk Ukraine. His father was a coal miner and his mother was a cleaner.  In his 20s, he became a protege of Akhat Bragin, another Tatar, who was President of Football Club FC Shakhtar Donetsk. At age 29, Akhmetov inherited Bragin's business empire after he was assassinated. He began buying natural resource assets and soon became the richest man in Ukraine, owning about half of Ukraine's steel, coal and energy production. He has been accused but never charged with being involved in organised crime.

Akhmetov is the founder and president of System Capital Management (SCM) now headquartered in Kyiv. He bankrolled American political consultant Paul Manafort to assist Victor Yanukovych's bid for election as President. Akhmetov was a member of the Ukrainian Verkhovna Rada (parliament). He then sided with Kyiv and opposed the pro-Russian separatists, saying a civil war would lead to the loss of jobs. It actually cost him a significant portion of his assets. When the war broke out, he moved the football club to Lviv and the businesses to Kyiv and has made multiple statements about the importance of maintaining Ukraine's sovereign integrity and finding peaceful solutions to the conflict. Now at age 55, he is the richest oligarch in Ukraine, net worth estimated at $7.5 billion. 

Traditionally pro-Ukraine, Sunni Muslims make up 13% of the Crimean population. I can actually see that Putin could believe that Rinat Akhmetov could sway the Crimean Muslims to back Russia in a conflict. I do not believe he would risk his fortune to work for Putin. 

Of course, both Akhmetov and Russia responded that there was no such plan. Russia claims the US is behind what was just malicious propaganda. Putin also made clear that his red line against Ukraine's joining NATO was not being taken seriously enough. 

To me, it sounds like exactly something Putin would stage. Orchestrate a coup in Ukraine, then send in troops to 'stabilise' the region and put in a puppet to 'lead' the nation. It's all a bit transparent. He needs that land corridor to Crimea and he's going to get it no matter how. 

Of course, Zelenskiy knows how to act the part of a wronged President fighting a corrupt superpower. He did it for years on TV. There are 92,000 troops on Ukraine's doorstep. Revealing the coup attempt would cause Putin to have to pivot. Zelenskiy is going to have to do more than act the part. But it's an interesting delaying strategy.