Zelenskiy takes the first round

With a majority of the votes counted, Zelenskiy has taken more than 30% of the vote on the first round. Poroshenko is following in second place with about 18%. Tymoshenko is out with 13%.

So it's as I expected, since no one took more than 50% of the vote, Zelenskiy and Poroshenko will face off in a runoff on April 21. Slava Ukraini!

The New York Times has an analysis here.

People have been saying "Only in Ukraine." But that's not true. Remember, the US had Ronald Reagan, a B-class movie actor. And California had the Governator. Now the US has a reality TV show star as President. Name recognition counts. And Zelenskiy has been role playing for some time now. That might make him the most qualified on the issues that count to the people. Let's watch what happens.

Elections in Ukraine

What do a chocolate magnate, an energy tycoon later jailed on corruption charges, and a TV comedian have in common? They are all running in Ukraine's presidential election today.

Zelensky casting his ballot

That may sound like a joke, but it's serious business for a country at war with Russia. They are the three lead candidates for the job: the incumbent, a former Prime Minister, and a comedian playing the President in a television series. If there is no outright majority winner, the top two candidates will duke it out in a second election on April 21. The incumbent, Petro Poroshenko's approval rating has gained some ground recently but the comedian, Volodymyr Zelensky may score 26.6% of the vote according to one poll. 

Zelensky is the star of 'Слуга Народу,' or Servant of the People, a Ukrainian television series carried on Netflix. He has high recognition and his name is a household word. In the made-for-TV series, Zelensky plays a schoolteacher who unexpectedly becomes President of Ukraine after becoming famous for an anti-corruption rant that goes viral on social media. Servant of the People is, in essence, a campaign advertisement for Zelensky. A new episode aired just days before the election. In reality, he's a political newcomer with no real platform or experience. They say that comedians are highly intelligent people. Let's see how long he can stand up to the pressures of facing down Putin. 

The third candidate is former Prime Minister Yulia Tymoshenko. The most recent Rating Group Ukraine poll* showed Tymoshenko running neck and neck with Poroshenko, each with support from about 17% of likely voters. Tymoshenko was the head of an energy company in the 1990s, became Prime Minister twice, and was later jailed over a natural gas agreement that she signed with Russia. She is widely believed to be corrupt among the Ukrainians and the victim of political retribution by others. 

Personally, I have liked Poroshenko. He's been in a tough place. He lost Crimea and Donbas on his watch. But he got Ukraine through the separation of the Ukrainian Orthodox Church from the Russian Orthodox Church, possibly halted the complete invasion of Ukraine by Russia, and managed to get the EU and NATO to consider Ukraine's position in Europe. Given that he is fighting off Putin, it's not difficult to understand why it would be hard to get a really high approval rating. 

I am suspect of Tymoshenko and I don't know Zelensky. Looks like I'll have to watch Netflix tonight.

*МОНІТОРИНГ ЕЛЕКТОРАЛЬНИХ НАСТРОЇВ УКРАЇНЦІВ (22-27 БЕРЕЗНЯ 2019 РОКУ)

Дата публікації: 28.03.2019

http://ratinggroup.ua/research/ukraine/monitoring_elektoralnyh_nastroeniy_ukraincev_22-27_marta_2019_goda.html

International Women's Day

Marc Bennetts a journalist in Moscow reported on how Russia marked International Women’s Day. International Women’s Day, a public holiday in Russia, has long lost any connection to feminist issues. The 8th of March has become all about men giving women flowers and complementing them on their looks.

Vladimir Putin offered his own tribute to Russian women, “You find time for everything – at work and at home, and yet remain beautiful, bright, charming and the centre of gravity for the whole family, uniting it with your love, as well as your ability to inspire and support, comfort and console.”
Putin’s comments came after he told female police officers, “What does a young woman need to maintain her figure? Three things: a workout machine, a masseuse, and a suitor.” He honoured female mounted police officers by riding alongside them.

This year, a bomb disposal robot handed bunches of yellow tulips to young girls in an online video. In Yekaterinburg, servicemen posted perhaps the day’s oddest tribute to Russia’s women, posing with assault rifles alongside ballerinas in an empty metro station. The project was entitled “The strength of a man is in the tenderness and love of a woman.” In Crimea, little green men in fatigues mimicked those seen on the peninsula before it was annexed. They handed out flowers on the streets. In St. Petersburg, men crashed into a feminist coffee shop forcing flowers on women during a women's only event where reportedly one woman sprayed them with pepper spray. 

The sad thing is, they don't see anything wrong with their behaviour. Domestic violence is a serious problem. About 8,000 Russian women are estimated to die annually from injuries caused by their partners. The situation was exacerbated in 2017 when Putin signed off on a law that partially decriminalised domestic violence. There were some attempts to promote women's rights on the day under the banner “It’s Not Her Fault” to raise funds for a charity that assists survivors of domestic abuse..

I'm afraid it's not much better in Ukraine. Ukraine, of course, celebrated similarly under communism. But last year, in 2018, the holiday was removed from the calendar. Women, who had been happy to be treated nicely on one day of the year became angry. Men who were used to doing something special on one day of the year got confused. And now the future of International Women's Day in Ukraine is uncertain. Why are women respected on just one day of the year? How about International Women's Year every year?

Ancestry

I recently had my ancestry analysed. Lo and behold, at the 50% confidence interval, my DNA showed a majority (84%) of Eastern European ancestry: Polish, Ukrainian, and a few others. Those traits cover everything in the last two generations. That matches my personal known history - my parents lived in the border region between Ukraine and Poland and the borders shifted all the time. 

My DNA also shows a relatively high percentage of 8.3% Greek/Balkan. That also makes perfect sense as our family was Greek Catholic and Byzantine catholicism was widespread in Ukraine.  These minor traits go back 4-7 generations. The remainder was attributed as Broadly European. 

Alas, my Neanderthal index is lower than 58% of people screened. I am, therefore, arguably more human than most. I wonder what implications that has. 

Russia's control of the seas

In the recent aggressive actions by Russia in the Sea of Azov, Russia has challenged international maritime law without reproach. By capturing Ukrainian ships and crews and regulating access to the Sea under their bridge, they have essentially closed off shipping to Ukrainian ports. They have crippled Ukraine's ability to trade and no one has stood up against them. The Ukrainians are still counting on NATO’s more active participation in condemning Russian aggression especially in the Sea of Azov crisis. We know that NATO means 'No Action, Talking Only'. This applies especially to the US and Trump. But hope remains.

Putin's strategic moves with Crimea and challenges to Ukraine by land and by sea have gone unpunished. No one cares about Ukraine. In the past, world wars have been started over much less. Yes, I learned in the board game RISK that Ukraine's borders are not defensible. Ukraine's defenses - one war ship - are certainly not up to the standard required to be a superpower whose borders others respect. No, instead, Putin pushes the boundaries wherever and whenever he can, gaining ground by inches if he has to, inducing fear among any who cross his lines. It is so frustrating to watch.

The New York Times summarizes the risks today:

"Such fears have highlighted how easy it is for Russia to squeeze Mariupol and Ukraine as a whole by dialing up and down pressure. It eases off when it wants to head off calls abroad for sanctions and assert plausible deniability, while leaving such a cloud of uncertainty that nobody can be sure what the risks are."

Meanwhile, Moscow is making moves to 'integrate' Belarus into Russia and the Unification Assembly of the Ukrainian Orthodox Church is taking part in Kyiv today to unite the two factions of the Ukrainian Church and remove Russia's controls over it. This is a volatile period for Europe. Putin won't stop until he has regained control of what was once the Soviet Union. Anything can explode.

Ukraine/Russia Conflict

The conflict between Ukraine and Russia explained very well. Above, the bridge Russia built from Crimea to the mainland.

Daniel McLaughlin, Central and Eastern Europe Correspondent for the Irish Times discusses the major tensions between Russia and Ukraine.

https://www.rte.ie/radio/utils/radioplayer/rteradioweb.html#!rii=b9_21472326_70__

Ukraine is not Russia

In response to Putin claiming that Ukraine is just southern Russia and in follow-up to the post about the spelling of Kyiv, Ukraine's capital, I offer this comparison between Kyiv and Moscow. Kyiv was founded back in 482 AD by three Norse explorers and their sister. Ukraine was a great Empire by the  9th century and its Christian roots go back to that period. In 867 Saints Cyril and Methodius appealed in person to the Bishop of Rome to bring the Christian faith into Kyivan Rus. By 906, they had founded a diocese in Peremyshl, today a diocese of the Ukrainian Greek Catholic Church in what is now Przemyśl, Poland from where my father's family hails. Their efforts, and those of their apostles, led to the translation of Christian Scriptures and service (liturgy) from Greek to Slavonic, and the eventual development of the modern Cyrillic alphabet. Christianity became dominant in the territory with the mass Baptism of Kiev in the Dniepro River in 988 ordered by Vladimir the Great.

This was several hundred years before Russia even existed! Moscow was founded around 1147. Ukraine is not Russia and never has been.