BBC's take on what it means to be Ukrainian

"Ukraine is not Russia."   

No, it's not the same language. Yes, it uses a similar alphabet but that doesn't mean I can understand it. English uses the same alphabet as French but they are not the same language. 

And it is not the same culture. How to explain to people that Ukraine and Russia are very different cultures? Russia is more oriental in orientation, more Mongol. Ukraine is more Slavic and Nordic. They are different worlds. Much like Ireland and England. Ireland is Celtic, while England is Norman. 

And Russians tried to wipe Ukrainians off the face of the earth. Read about Holodomor and you'll understand the collective memory. 

For once, the BBC got it mostly right. Many thanks, BBC. 

https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-37169341

WW III?

Is the world prepared for war over Ukraine?  I believe not and Paul Mason lays out the arguments well. No one really likes or cares about Ukraine. People see it as the weaker version of Russia and just as corrupt. And of course, it is because it was populated by Russian oligarchs who pillaged the natural resources of Ukraine, and starved and poisoned its people and their will. 

But Ukrainians will not give up. What every one of Ukrainian descent knows is that the diaspora were all taught to fight for Ukraine when the time comes. And the time is coming.

What anyone who has played the board game Risk also knows is that Ukraine's borders are indefensible. There's just too much border to watch it all. So whether any war can secure the country is questionable. Wait and see. 

To coup or not to coup

President Zelenskiy revealed yesterday that Ukraine had uncovered a Russia-backed plan to stage a coup in Ukraine. It was to take place December 1-2 and involve Ukraine's richest man, Rinat Akhmetov. He said there were tape recordings of a conversation between Russians and Akhmetov who were trying to recruit him for the coup.

Rinat Akhmetov is a Sunni Muslim born in 1966 in Donetsk Ukraine. His father was a coal miner and his mother was a cleaner.  In his 20s, he became a protege of Akhat Bragin, another Tatar, who was President of Football Club FC Shakhtar Donetsk. At age 29, Akhmetov inherited Bragin's business empire after he was assassinated. He began buying natural resource assets and soon became the richest man in Ukraine, owning about half of Ukraine's steel, coal and energy production. He has been accused but never charged with being involved in organised crime.

Akhmetov is the founder and president of System Capital Management (SCM) now headquartered in Kyiv. He bankrolled American political consultant Paul Manafort to assist Victor Yanukovych's bid for election as President. Akhmetov was a member of the Ukrainian Verkhovna Rada (parliament). He then sided with Kyiv and opposed the pro-Russian separatists, saying a civil war would lead to the loss of jobs. It actually cost him a significant portion of his assets. When the war broke out, he moved the football club to Lviv and the businesses to Kyiv and has made multiple statements about the importance of maintaining Ukraine's sovereign integrity and finding peaceful solutions to the conflict. Now at age 55, he is the richest oligarch in Ukraine, net worth estimated at $7.5 billion. 

Traditionally pro-Ukraine, Sunni Muslims make up 13% of the Crimean population. I can actually see that Putin could believe that Rinat Akhmetov could sway the Crimean Muslims to back Russia in a conflict. I do not believe he would risk his fortune to work for Putin. 

Of course, both Akhmetov and Russia responded that there was no such plan. Russia claims the US is behind what was just malicious propaganda. Putin also made clear that his red line against Ukraine's joining NATO was not being taken seriously enough. 

To me, it sounds like exactly something Putin would stage. Orchestrate a coup in Ukraine, then send in troops to 'stabilise' the region and put in a puppet to 'lead' the nation. It's all a bit transparent. He needs that land corridor to Crimea and he's going to get it no matter how. 

Of course, Zelenskiy knows how to act the part of a wronged President fighting a corrupt superpower. He did it for years on TV. There are 92,000 troops on Ukraine's doorstep. Revealing the coup attempt would cause Putin to have to pivot. Zelenskiy is going to have to do more than act the part. But it's an interesting delaying strategy. 

Russia's Hybrid War on Europe

 

From the Telegraph

The Telegraph newspaper printed a feature today about how Putin has unleashed a 'hybrid war' on Europe, pretty much what I said yesterday. They made the point that Belarus, the test of weapons in space, the amassing of troops on the Ukraine border and the reopening of negotiations on nuclear proliferation are not separate events but part of one big strategy to split the attention of European nations and NATO. 

"How Russia's 'hybrid war' was finally unleashed on Europe

Commentators have warned for years that Russia was planning to use various methods, as well as the threat of conventional war, to undermine the West. 

Recent weeks have proven those predictions true. These are the main flashpoints in the ongoing, multi-front struggle.

Photo via @TelegraphWorld"

Discussion with astronauts on the ISS who had to shelter while passing through a debris field created by a Russian weapons test. 

Russia preparing to invade Ukraine

Satellite photo shows ground forces massing in Yelnya, Russia
November 1, 2021. Pic: Maxar /Reuters

Tanks near border

Russia is massing troops (100,000) near Ukraine's border and wagging the dog with migrants in Belarus. Macron tells Putin France is ready to defend Ukraine's 'territorial integrity', the US has delivered 80 tons of munitions to Ukraine, Sweden is ready to send a military training mission to Ukraine. Johnson wants the EU to choose between Ukraine and the gas pipeline (WTF????).

"U.S. officials warn Europe: Russia may be weighing an invasion of Ukraine" (Bloomberg) "Blinken Warns Russia Against Making a ‘Serious Mistake’ in Ukraine" NYT

"France told Russia NATO would be prepared to defend the sovereignty of Ukraine, while Western leaders sought to tackle a migrants crisis on the eastern borders of the European Union."

"Alors que les tensions entre la Russie et l'Europe semblent plus proches que jamais du point de rupture, les États-Unis ont livré 80 tonnes de munitions à l'Ukraine."

"JUST NU: Försvarsminister Peter Hultqvist (S) beredd att skicka svensk militär till Ukraina samtidigt som Ryssland rustar vid gränsen. Säger ja till förslag att träna ukrainska trupper." https://sverigesradio.se/artikel/forsva

"Boris Johnson warns EU to choose between Ukraine and Nord Stream 2" FT

"Nord Stream 2: Germany halts approval of Russian gas link" BBC

Is this the moment the next WW is triggered? Just what we need: a pandemic, a climate crisis and a world war.  Oh yes, add pestilence to the list because scorpions stung more than 500 people in Egypt after massive rainstorms flooded their homes. 

The speculation is that Russia needs to establish a land bridge to Crimea and that they plan to take that corridor forcibly. Noone has mentioned if they have moved any ships into position yet.