Look them in the eye and tell Ukraine she is on her own. Or not.

Western sanctions and anti-Russian rhetoric may have little meaning and effect...the answer may lie in China. 

I have been watching, like many Ukrainians in the diaspora, and waiting to see how things will unfold after the Russian annexation of Crimea. I cringed when the un-Russian troops marched into the Ukrainian barracks and marched the bewildered Ukrainian soldiers out, taking the Commander, Admiral Serhiy Haiduk, away as hostage. The Russians released him Thursday as they ousted Ukrainian forces from bases around Crimea.




In a blisteringly paced invasion, Putin denounced the West and Ukraine in typical ex-KGB agent rhetoric while pronouncing that Crimea has always been an integral part of Russia. Oh, really? I think the Ottoman Empire, the Turks and the Tatars may have a different opinion on this matter. Crimea's heritage is much more closely aligned to Turkey than to Russia. Turkey has this week threatened to close the Bosporus to Russian ships if there is further destabilization in the region. Of course, in the same week they shut down Twitter. Let's see, does that make them less or more credible?

  60      Years Crimea has been part of Ukraine (1954-2014)
               (35 of those years as part of USSR)

206      Years Crimea was part of Russia and then the USSR (1783-1989)

296      Years Crimea was part of the Ottoman Empire (1478-1774) 

It is the Crimean Tatars for whom I am most fearful. They've been living peacefully as part of Ukraine since 1954 and now suddenly they are being targeted with hate crimes. Those ex-KGB un-Russian forces were the only new influence in the region, so who started that movement? Look them in the eyes and see where they wish to align.


Meanwhile, the EU (with Germany and France in the lead) and the US have imposed economic sanctions against Russia, its banks and its top echelon in government and business, short of Putin. Russian stocks plummeted on Friday and their banks, especially Rossiya, are having great difficulty. Mastercard and VISA have stopped providing their services. Putin laughingly said he would open a new account with Rossiya and have his salary deposited there. So where has he been banking until now, and how are his finances performing? I would love to see his personal assets frozen.

But if this doesn't work, and it is unlikely to since Russia does supply all that gas to Europe, what else can be done? No one is willing to take any military action, nor would they be advised to do so. Mr. Obama told NBC in San Diego, “We are not going to be getting into a military excursion in Ukraine. What we are going to do is mobilize all of our diplomatic resources to make sure that we’ve got a strong international correlation that sends a clear message.” And what precisely is that message, Mr. Obama? I haven't really heard any, so I'm pretty certain that an ex-KGB agent like Putin, who would be trying to read between the lines, hasn't really heard much that concerns him either.


Victor Sebestyen, in today's New York Times, says pointedly, "It is no time for hyperbole and hypocrisy. The honest thing for Western leaders to do would be to tell Ukraine that it is on its own, that there is little that in reality they are prepared to do, and admit that their power is limited and circumscribed. That would be the honest thing to tell Western voters, too." Yes, Victor, you look them in the eyes and say that. I'm not sure I would want to go there.


Ukraine yesterday moved to sign the deal with the EU that started this whole thing when Yanukovych chose a loan from Russia instead of an affiliation with the EU. So I am truly hopeful that Ukraine is strengthened while the Russian oligarchs start feeling pain in their pockets quickly and so advise Mr. Putin that he needs to rectify their financial downfall which he has highhandedly precipitated.


China could assist in this matter. China had agreements to install bases for transport and trade in southern Crimea as well as huge land leases for agriculture agreed with the former Ukrainian Prime Minister Yanukovych. They have been obviously silent on the matter of Crimea and concerned for their own interests. And they have just been approached by the EU-US coalition to help bailout Ukraine financially to stave off bankruptcy.


So here's an idea. How about Russia borrows money from China to compensate Ukraine for the annexation of Crimea? Ukraine can then use that money to finance a move of their naval bases and loyal or concerned citizens to the coast and conduct democratic elections. Hell, if the US could buy Alaska, why shouldn't Russia buy Crimea if they want it so badly? They could achieve peaceful resolution of this farcical invasion that has done nothing but alienate the world. That is one way that Russia could save face, Ukraine could back down and move on, and the West could stand down to avoid further conflict and loss of momentum on other fronts like Afghanistan, Korea and Syria. And with China moving forward with leasing agricultural land from Ukraine, Russia wouldn't have the nerve to invade, would they? It's a thought. No?