Solving the Russia Problem

New York Times 21/04/2014

QUOTATION OF THE DAY

"If you just stand there, be confident and raise the cost gradually and increasingly to Russia, that doesn't solve your Crimea problem and it probably doesn't solve your eastern Ukraine problem. But it may solve your Russia problem."

IVO H. DAALDER, a former American ambassador to NATO, on one potential approach President Obama could take with President Vladimir V. Putin. 

The East Rises Up Against Separatism

Last month, this quote caught my attention in the NY Times. I had written in my blog prior to this that the only chance Ukraine had was if the businessmen in Russia and Eastern Ukraine felt the pain of sanctions and took up positions against Putin's actions.

In the last few days, I have been rejoicing over the rise of metals and mining magnate Rinat Akhmetov, Ukraine's richest man, who issued a statement Wednesday decrying separatism from Ukraine. In a YouTube video Akhmetov urged his employees to take back Mariupol and other cities in Eastern Ukraine. This is no small feat and no small promise. Akhmetov has reportedly 280,000 employees within System Capital Management, and along with their families they represent a significant proportion of the population in Eastern Ukraine.  

The UN had just reported an increase in Human Rights violations in Eastern Ukraine with people, journalists and others vocal against separatism among them, disappearing. Clashes between separatists and government troops were increasing. The unrest was growing. 

What I did not envision was that one of the citizens would take matters into his own hands and do what Ukraine's government could not do without giving Putin the right to step in.  He took control. His people are throwing out the thugs, cleaning up the streets, and restoring order to their towns and cities.  This is democracy at its best.  This is true leadership. 

"We have to bring order to the city," said steelworker Aleksei Gorlov of his unpaid patrol of Mariupol's streets. "People organize themselves. In times of trouble, that is how it works."

Read more at UPI.  

The miners had not previously revealed their allegiance but they have a history of leadership on matters of importance to the people as evidenced by the mining strikes that helped bring down the Soviet Union. Perhaps it is that memory of pre-democratic times that spurs them to action. Perhaps its the simple desire to want to live in peace with their families. Perhaps they are afraid of disappearing. Perhaps the unrest was just hurting business too much. Or perhaps they know what it would mean to be aligned with Russia once again - been there, done that, won't make that mistake again. Whatever the reason, it was not the external economic sanctions against Russia alone that did it, although I am sure that would contribute to Akhmetov's thinking. It was a citizen, a Russian speaking citizen, saying, "Enough!" and standing up against oppression and violence.  

At the same time, CNN conducted a poll of Ukrainians from all parts of the country and reports that 56% identified with Europe while only 19% were  loyal to Russia.  This seems to uphold the position of Akhmetov who would choose federalism within Ukraine over separatism and alignment with Russia. How interesting. His employees have apparently now been joined by the police who are ousting all the rebels from five cities. Their trucks and heavy equipment are cleaning up the barricades and debris, and their employees restoring order. They even took down the signs decreeing the free state of Donetsk. 

Most interesting in the CNN poll is also the finding that the Ukrainians surveyed view Obama as a weak but friendly leader and Putin as a strong but dangerous leader. The poll was reported to have about a 3% margin of error, so the numbers should be reflective of the overall opinion.  Perhaps most interesting is that Angela Merkel comes up as the leader who best understands Ukraine and her needs. Of course. She is Eastern European - the strongest leader in Europe, has a clear understanding and memory of Soviet era politics, is an ex-KGB agent herself who studied in Moscow and is fluent in Russian.  She would relate to the dangerous nature of ex-KGB agent Putin's tactics.  Of course, he also knows her well, having served in Dresden when the Wall came down. Of course the Ukrainians would trust her to understand their plight. 

Meanwhile, Putin announced military exercises at the borders of Ukraine to coincide with the scheduled Ukrainian elections. Right. No one can see that Putin, the bully, is using his intimidation routine, yet again, to keep people from going to the polls. No, no one would see through his tactics. Perhaps Angela can persuade NATO to post troops on the other side as a NATO exercise?  That would be a reasonable thing for her to do.  It wouldn't cost Germany anything, but it would certainly give the people of Ukraine the confidence to cast their honest votes.

So what would be a fine outcome here?  A fine outcome might be for Ukraine to host fair and internationally monitored elections which would provide the means by which to establish a federation of Ukrainian States that would govern regionally and negotiate together on the world stage - much as the US does.  Each unit of the federation would have the ability to satisfy the diverse needs of its people while the federation itself would deliver the centralized union with the EU or with whomever they choose to align.  The people would go back to daily living, the magnates would go back to making money, and Putin could sulk over his failure in Ukraine and his empty rooms in Socchi.  He'll have to move on to figure out the propaganda angle by which to undo the damage he inflicted on the global image of Russia. It was so delicately constructed and precariously balanced that he'll need to hire an army of PR people to attract back all those tourists who decided to cancel their trip for 2014.  I'm afraid he's lost that cause for this year and perhaps longer. 

In other words, Ukraine and its people could actually win.